UvA experts predict ‘stormy period’ due to geopolitical tensions
Risk experts have become significantly more pessimistic about global short-term prospects. This is evident from the Global Risks Report 2026 by the World Economic Forum, to which UvA-professor Henk Volberda contributed. Fifty percent of the 1,300 experts surveyed expect the world to face a ‘turbulent’ or ‘stormy’ period in the coming two years.
Half of the scientists, policymakers, and business leaders participating in the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report expect the next two years to be ‘turbulent’ or ‘stormy’. This marks a distinct increase in expert concerns regarding immediate global risks. Last year, only 36 percent of respondents held such a negative view of the short term.
For the next two years, the consulted experts view political disputes as the greatest risk. Geo-economic confrontations — where economic resources are strategically deployed to achieve political goals — and armed conflicts are cited by the report as the most probable threats leading to a crisis situation.
Henk Volberda, Professor of Strategy & Innovation at the University of Amsterdam, collected the data for the Netherlands via the Amsterdam Centre for Business Innovation (ACBI). He warns of the potential consequences of rising international tensions: “For an open trading nation like the Netherlands, these are not abstract risks, but direct threats to our prosperity and strategic autonomy.”
In the long term, experts view climate change as the greatest danger to global stability. Looking toward 2036, respondents fear the growing impact of extreme weather conditions, declining biodiversity, and disrupted ecosystems. Tech-related risks, such as (AI) misinformation and cyber threats, also rank highly.
The Global Risks Report 2026 also examines the key risks for individual countries. For the Netherlands, these are:
- Misinformation and disinformation
- Geo-economic confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening, etc.)
- Talent and/or labour shortages
- Societal polarization
- Cyber insecurity
Although 57 percent of the experts in the report expect the coming ten years to be ‘turbulent’ or ‘stormy’, this actually represents a decrease compared to last year. At that time, 65 percent of respondents held negative long-term expectations for the coming decade.
To tackle risks in both the long and short term, Volberda advises adopting a steadfast strategic course: “This means investing in knowledge, innovation, and cooperation, both at the national and European levels. Only in this way can we remain economically competitive and socially resilient.”
